tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg April 19, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: we are going to take you from london to new york in the next hour. here is what we are watching today. the campaign to prevent a brexit is heating up. mark carney and george osborne come out with all they have got in front of parliament. is it enough to keep the u.k. in the eu? betty: air carriers are reaping rewards of falling oil prices. have companies been passing it down to passengers? we will hear exclusively from the ceo of ryanair? mark: l'oreal reporting earnings today. we are going to break down the winners and the losers of the european earning bonanza. minutes now to the trading session.
julie hyman has the latest on some of the movers particularly on earnings here. julie: they earnings driven. all three major averages are moved by the individual components that have reported earnings. that is why the nasdaq is trailing today because we have had some big cap tech disappointments and also in biotech. the dow jones and s&p 500 are each of exactly the same amount -- .41% here. some early highlights that want to mention. on the upside, we have johnson and johnson and goldman sachs. johnson & johnson reporting earnings to beat estimates. goldman sachs cutting its way to an earnings beat. we have seen that happen with a number of banks. goldman was down earlier but then turned around. ibm falling after its newer businesses like the cloud is
this not making up for lagging legacy business. i also want to talk about more broadly what has been going on with the major averages because we have been looking at new highs for the year for the s&p, the dow, and the nasdaq. if you look at broader measures of stocks, you will see the have actually made record highs. the white line is the s&p 500. the blue is the total s&p 500 total return index, which includes the return with dividends. the purple line is the equal weight index, assuming all stocks in the s&p 500 would be equal weighted, that is the game that you would see. there has been a lot of complaints with the buybacks going away as they tend to do during earnings season. you would see a big buyer come out of the market. short covering seems to have replaced it could this is the goldman sachs index of the most shorted stocks. ofis up 34% from the lows the year.
it is been a really interesting phenomenon. betty: let us talk about the move and commodities and how that has been affected by the dollar. julie: the dollar today is at its lowest since june. that is definitely something that is tension commodities. the global at commodity monitor here. seen it recall having this green an in quite a while. sugar is the only thing on this monitor lower today. mark? for youhave some green myself. european stocks rising for the seventh this is an eight day chart for the stoxx 600. the european benchmark has risen by 6.4%. it is heading for its highest close since june 6, thanks to a rebound in oil, which is a
lifting sentiment. among the companies that have beaten on earnings or sales is europe's biggest drugmaker. it reported a 5% increase in first-quarter sales, narrowly beating estimates. this is a nice chart, betty. these are the big drugmakers in 2016. you can see glaxosmithkline is up by 9%. 7%.e is dime by 14%.tis is down by let's move on. let us talk about a very much french day today. the top estimates show a gain of 3.5%. igh prices for its yogurt products compensating for the lower volume. i've done a big chart of the three big food producers. uni lever is leading the way.
danone have declines over the past 12 months with 2.7%. finishing with the biggest one, o nobel, the maker,s biggest paint beating costs, up by 5.3%. betty, you're watching that puts earnings. betty: i am indeed and i am told that you are not on the netflix train. mark: i'm so behind the times. are you on it? i am on amazon. times behind the that i still get dvds delivered to my house. i know -- that's embarrassing. betty: the stock is down almost 10%.
it is sort of bouncing along a little bit. part of that has to do with people like mark who are not signing on to netflix overseas. their second quarter was much lower than forecast. it is forecasting 2 million subscribers. expectation on wall street was between 3.5 to 4 million subscribers. that is why the stock is down. we've got to get you on netflix . let us check in on the bloomberg first word news. vonnie quinn has more. hillary clinton has lost seven of the last eight primaries or caucuses to bernie sanders and now she is hoping to regain the upper hand. secretary clinton is favored in today's new york primary. represented from the state senate. donald trump hoping for a big boost in the republican nomination. he holds a double-digit lead over ted cruz and john kasich in new york. it would give him momentum going into five key contest next
week coul. present obama is arriving in saudi arabia. arabianshold any saudi accountable for any role in the 9/11 attacks. the white house says the bill risks alienating a key ally. president obama spoke to cbs news. >> if we open up the possibility that individuals in the united states can routinely start suing other governments, then we are also opening up the united states to being continually suit by individuals in other countries. vonnie: the president will meet with the saudi king tomorrow. in afghanistan, the taliban launched an attack on a government agency. casualties are numbered in the hundreds. a cartacks began with limitedd 300 and 20 are
-- 320 are wounded. says it could easily call off the refugee deal struck with the european union. the deal calls for turkey to accept migrants deported from europe. turkey would make it easier for its citizens to get european visas. if europe does not hold up its end of the bargain, the little turkey. dayal news play for hours a -- 24 hours a day, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: the campaign to prevent is u.k. from leaving the eu going to mark carney and george the dangerslighting of an exit. in defense of his institutions contribution that he is not political. more on brexit next. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. betty: i am betty liu. this is the european a look at some the biggest stories in the business and is right now. plunge 60% andsensitiv is the worst performer on the dow. that is goldman sachs. that is the worst burning lloyd blankfein became ceo in 2006. it's on the biggest cost-cutting pushing years. the annual rate of 1.1 million homes sales was the lowest since october. it is a sign the housing
industry lost momentum as it heads into the busiest time of the year. coca-cola says it is giving can't and bottles of its flagship soda a makeover. they are planning on beautifying the appearance of co-, diet coke, code zero. outone brand look will roll in mexico next month and spread out in other countries. coke is still considering his options for the united states. that is your bloomberg business flash for this hour. the bank of england's mark carney spoke at a house of words on the economic risks of exit. it is causing the pound the fall since its peak. mark: the central bank will make appropriate contingency plans and must assess implications for monetary policy. the biggesti quote risk to financial
stability. the pressures associated with the referendum have the potential to reinforce existing vulnerabilities and financial stability, including risks emanating from the very high current account deficit, from property markets, market liquidity, and from possible negative spillovers from the rest of the eu. some of the elements of this risk may begin to manifest. mark: i want to bring in the standard & poor's chief economist from europe. trickychelle, it is a balancing act to sustain the bank of england's neutrality and , but do you think the bank of england is walking the high water delicately or is it leaning to one side. ? >> if you read the minutes of last week's monetary policy committee meeting, there is no
doubt that the bank of england at this point has taken o view that brexit would be a negative for the u.k. economy. it is expressing that view in a very vocal way. one can be a bit surprised that such a strong statement is just as theis point official campaign has started for brexit. sideinly the boe is on one and will be very vocal i think until june 23. mark: is it damaging to the institution that it has taken a side? those who are pushing for the u.k. to leave the eu might say so. jean-michel: they might indeed. they would totally have a point in the sense that the bank is supposed to be independent and neutral. on the other side, i think the bank is trying to play a useful
role. as you mentioned earlier, straining -- sterling has taking a bit of a canning on the markets ahead of greg's i brexi. the banks concern is that too sharp a fall of the fx rate of the pound would be damaging for the u.k. economy now, not in the future. it wants to communicate to the markets that it is indeed in charge of the rates and in charge of the monetary and financial conditions in the u k. happensl see what surrounding the referendum and the bank will defend the economy to negative affects. in that sense, you can argue it is playing a role that it should. betty: right now, voters are split on this. if there is a brexit, i am curious about the impact on
wider europe and the ecb and whether that means the ecb is going to be in this mode of an ultra low monetary policy almost on a permanent basis if we see something with this. jean-michel: you have to take things in order. as far as interest rates are concerned from the ecb, you can be sure that we are going to see very low interest rates for a ofy prolonged period time, at least until 2018, regardless of what happens with brexit. in the case of the u.k. leaving the eu, i would not be surprised in that case to see the bank of england and the european central onk intervening in concert foreign exchange markets to prevent too big a slide of the pound against the euro and possibly against the greenback. betty: that makes perfect sense.
speaking about the greenback, let us talk about fed policy for a moment because it seems like the fed no matter what is on track to raise interest rates. i want to play for you the boston fed president and what he said just in the last 24 hours on interest rates. >> i actually think because the economy is stronger, because i think the economy is fundamentally sound that we will have conditions were gradually raising rates faster than financial markets would expect would make sense. betty: do you think we are underestimating the fed and the pace at which they raise rates? jean-michel: this is a very interesting quote that you just presented because i think about a year ago or perhaps even less than that, mark carney made a very similar comment when he said that the next hike by the bank of england could actually come earlier than the markets currently expect. that was a year ago.
at this point in time, certainly no one expects the bank of england to hike interest rates anymore in 2016. i would therefore make an observation for the fed. we at standard & poor's expect to more hikes this year and i certainly would be surprised if it happened before june. betty: who knows? is he unfortunately following in carney's footsteps? we will find out indeed. jean-michel: thank you. betty: go ahead. finish your point. jean-michel: i was going to say that you always have the be a bit careful with those single statements coming from one member of the ruling committee. they are trying to test certain ideas as well and see what the market reactions are. betty: thank you so much. that is the standard & poor's
chief economist for europe. still ahead, what will the impact of a brexit the on european companies? we will have the ryanair ceo and exclusive interview. >> it is going to take far longer than two years to renegotiate the interest -- the entrance into the single marketplace and england will be manifestly worse off. ♪
cameron'sv david report card and whether the u.k. ought to leave the european union. >> if they vote to leave and i sincerely hope they will not, i do not expect any free gift from the germans or competitor nations of written for and they will not make it easier for britain to get back into it will . it will take far longer than two years to get back into the single marketplace and britain will be manifestly worse off. >> if you had to mark david cameron's campaign 1-10, where does he stand on the early days of effectiveness? >> it's an early day. the protection of sterling and protection against further , certainof the euro limits on migration, he is a very positive start. he is a good campaigner. he has a good story to tell. the difference on the leaf side
is that they have no effective leader and have no story to tell. >> you have been quite vocal in terms of how you perceive the leaf campaign, but cameron's got to move a 20% undecided group. what does he need to do to shift that dial? >> fundamentally he needs to keep doing what he's doing . the 20% undecided will shift in the run-up to the election date. the question is where they will jump. there's no upside to leaving. if you leave, you will still obey the regulations. why would you leave in the first place? cameron needs to keep going and keep the focus on the benefits of staying in europe and the difficulties of leaving. the big? is does it become a referendum on the u.k. government. that is the concern for everyone on the remain side. >> would you or are you doing
more hedging in this interim period of risk? >> not at the moment. we think it is a reasonably short-term risk. we will certainly settle down one way or another when the vote is taken in june. vote to leave, sterling will suffer for a few quarters. frankly i do not think it is worth our while doing that. we are not hedging against that risk. our focus continues to be over the medium-term, hedging low oil prices and tried to pass that on to our customers in the form of lower airfares. >> you are very well hedged on oil. when you look at what unfolded in delhi over the weekend, i'm. oilus on the state of volatility. is opec becoming irrelevant? >> i think largely yes. opec is no longer the swing producer. increasing now is north america's shale producers.
the iranians will not agree with the saudi's, etc. opec's important in a trading sense, but leaving out the fund metals of the oil market for the next two to three years is that supply exceeds demand. pricing is down at $40 a barrel. i think it will increase slowly over time, but the further increases, the more you bring shale oil production back. mark: our chief executive michael o'leary speaking to manus cranny. this is a lovely chart showing eu consumer confidence dipping since the middle of last year. it matters kiss consumer confidence is an indicator for air travel. low cost travelers was catered most exposedvelers to changes in consumer sentiment. we are nowhere near the lows of financial crisis. it is worth keeping that in mind that yes, consumer confidence is
falling. it does affect the low-cost carriers. oneare looking a u.s. low-cost carrier. betty: spirit airlines. they see first quarter opportunity margins improving 21.5%. their capacity going up. some of that may be consumer confidence, but it is also them undercutting bigger airlines in ticket prices. they are one of the most hated airlines. because with cheap prices, you do not get a whole lot. mark: that has been the criticism of ryanair, who have launched a nice campaign in the last year. the european close is coming up next. ♪
stoxx 600 and a look at the 19 industry groups on the european benchmark. every single one rising today. it is gaining for the seventh day, aiming for its highest close since january 6. the stock 600 up 1.4% higher. it has been a day of sales beating estimates. l'oreal has shares of by 5%. it rose up as earlier as 5.6%. the world big cosmetics player reporting first-quarter revenue that the estimates. day for nyx make up compensating for a slowdown in asia. it has been a french day. the ad company seeing first-quarter sales beating estimates. shares up a 6.8% at the close.
the ad agencies include saatchi & saatchi. first quarter sales beat estimates by the operations and growth and/or parik in north amn and european markets. they accepted an offer to buy the brands for 2.5 5 billion euros. this is clearing another hurdle in its effort to complete its takeover of sab miller. ab inbev up by 2.8%. how's it looking there? betty: markets are seeing gains against today. we are coming off of our highs though. the nasdaq has just turned lower. abigail doolittle has more live .rom the nasdaq coul abigail: the nasdaq is trading lower and we have other averages
trading higher and technology is one of the big drags. ebay shares are lower after morgan stanley downgraded ebay from an underweight to an equal weight. it is showing for signs of weakness in the international their third pressure from amazon with the activist seeing no signs of erosion. when we look at the near chart, ebay is above its 50 day moving average. it is something that suggests that the buyers in the near term are somewhat interested in the stock. the last two times it happened, ebay stock shot higher, suggesting we stated for the company's first-quarter report next tuesday. drags ebay is one of the on the nasdaq, what what else is going on here? abigail: as a sector, the biotech index is down sharply. lumina stock is plunging after the biotech company preannounced its first-quarter sales. it also reduced its full-year sales quarter outlook.
lots of bearish reaction from the street with the downgraded price target cuts. jonathan palmer says the company is facing a difficult task ahead with the slowing sales growth. it is a view supported by a long-term chart that shows the sellers have reversed or broken and him trend, one that has caused the stock to go down on buying pressure. it will be up to the buyers to see whether or not they defend the stock to prevent it from falling to a new series of error bearish lows. betty: let us check in now with bloomberg first word news. vonnie quinn has more from the newsroom. vonnie: secretary state john kerry is meeting with the foreign minister before he flies to saudi arabia. the meetings main focus will be arabian complaints that is not getting the sanctions it deserves after last years
landmark nuclear deal. in syria, a several week truce is effectively shattered. they will not resume peace talks until the syrian government stops its attacks and allows humanitarian aid to be delivered. the united nations is urging the u.s. and russia to get the peace process back on track. president is visiting russia for the first time. he began his tour with a visit to moscow stadium, undergoing a major rebuild to be ready for the world cup finals. he is the new head of soccer's ing body. crewsrian rescue are running out of time as they rescue people trapped from the earthquake. the 7.8 magnitude quake flattened scores of buildings on ecuador's pacific coast. brazil's president dilma rousseff is bowing to keep
fighting and impeachment process that she considers an affront to democracy. she told a gathering of the foreign press that the only fight is only beginning. the lower congress has put her on trial in the senate. they could remove her from office with a simple majority vote. global news powered toy for --rs a day, i vonnie quinn global news howard 24 hours a day, i am vonnie quinn. betty: should investors be looking to europe for value? what about this week's ecb decision? mark: questions, questions, questions. now -- is now to parse think that is the first time we have ever used that word. >> i think that is the first time you ever used that word. mark: this could be one of the
worst quarter since 2009 as analyst are cutting their estimates for the stock 600 companies. is this rebound sustainable? . > i think it could >> i think it could be. you hit the nail on the head. we have had a pretty banner day. today has been the day of france. we've had pretty solid numbers of missed a whole slew of european companies. if you look at the european market based on any kind of normalized earnings performance, it does look really quite cheap against the u.s. and against other markets. the problem we have had over the past several years is that we start the year expect and 10% earnings growth and by the end of the year we are back at zero. this is been the worst year so far. we are almost back a zero already. the fact that we are seeing
better earnings out of some bids companies does give me some confidence that if the currency remains competitive and we get better global growth, i think the macroeconomic data coming out from around the world whether it is china or the u.s. turn and a better there is a chance that we have one of those unusual years where may be the end of the first quarter in europe was the trough for expectations and we begin to see gradual upgrades. mark: you mentioned china. what can we take overall from the likes of l'oreal and don anone? what is the theme if we can pull a common theme out of those different companies? ack: i don't think there was common thing for the common theme was probably the expectations have got just a little too low. quite a number of these ,ompanies that you talked about
these are stable companies. they have relatively stable businesses. i do not think that we can draw any particular companies. publicis is interesting. expectations were low as they had a very tough six-month. france's answer to drawn draper -- don draper, we are not sure who will succeed him. betty: it would be hard to follow in his footsteps. i want to get back to the earnings question here in the u.s.. if you can look on your screen, this is on our bloomberg. it has to do with profit margins. thick of earnings, what we are seeing right now is that profit margins are really getting squeezed. as we have seen the last few years recently, as you saw all right before the great recession back in 2007 and right before the big implosion in the tech
bubble back in 2000, earnings and margins were starting to come down. we wonder whether or not that might be a replay that we are seeing right now. nick: possibly. there are a couple of things that have been going on for profit margins. i think this is important for macroeconomic policy. i think there are signs that which inflation is beginning to pick up. there's another interesting chart that you can show looking at employment cost index. there is very strong correlation between the two of them. i think that is one thing that corporate are dealing with. i think the particular problem in america has been the fact that currency has been quite a bit headwind. turning to earnings today, i thought it was interesting that johnson & johnson came out today with better numbers than expected. if you look at the cause of that on the revenue side, quite a lot of it has to do with less bad currency headwinds that were expected.
they were talking 10 sense of earnings drag that actually came out now around two cents or three cents. the fact that the dollar and the euro has weakened a bit, this going over the next couple of quarters will offset the fact that business costs are rising and that companies are struggling to pass those on. think those are pre-stages of recession at all and the big changes of the markets the last 6-8 weeks is that a couple months ago, people really believe the u.s. was it going to fall into a recession. i think that put that to bed and quite a way over the last six weeks. betty: i cannot figure out how a rate increase is going to affect the bottom line for corporate s.n the one on the one hand, it could give them pricing power, but on the other hand, it is not the easy money that companies have had to
borrow and be able to put to work in other respects. i cannot quite figure out. you tell me how that will affect their bottom line. and: i think the rate tightening of monetary policy has weakened the dollar cou. the fed is on a slow go this morning and their targets are symmetric this morning. they would rather run the risk of inflation more, but we do not have to worry about rates going too much up. bit of helpe a low from a slightly weaker dollar from u.s. corporate. as a global equity investor, i've much more opportunity outside the u.s. , one ofe weak dollar the reasons why we have seen a rebound and commodities, this is a lovely chart. my favorite chart at the moment.
whether it is an all-time .rough, anglo-american 234% would you change mining stocks from here? both have fared well in recent months. nick: i would personally not chase these stocks. you have to draw a distinction between different sources of commodities. if you look at what is driven mining stocks, it is clear with hindsight that chinese stimulus really began to pick up. we do not notice this happening at the time and we have only seen it because the data is now out. this has led to a more healthy market and construction has picked up in china. housing construction has picked up. it is a much healthier market than six month ago. ntory's been an inve rebuild. there is a natural decline rate and oil. when you stick a whole and the
ground and you get a gusher come you do not know what is going to happen except that over time it will gush a lot less. if you are digging iron ore out of the ground in australia, the only question is how quickly can you do it? you just keep on digging it out of the ground. although we have a lot of oversupply and oil, there is a natural and i think a very rational phrase that will bring that back into balance overtime. i'm not shows sure that will necessarily happen with these other commodities. given the steep rises that you pointed out, i would much rather bet on a normalizing of energy prices rather than betting that we are going to have a boon in iron ore or other metals. mark: nicholas, thank you so much for joining us today. he is parsing through today's data. coming up in battle the charts, i'm going to face off with egg big joe. do not miss it.
betty: it is time now for our global battle the charts where we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors . you can access these by using the bottom of your screen. kicking things off as joe weisenthal. survey got the latest from the ecb about bank lending standards. our banks extending credit? this is the essence of what monetary policy is all about. bloomberg intelligence crunches all the data and puts it all into one number. what they show is that the bloomberg intelligence euro area
index ising and th starting to roll over. credit in the eurozone perhaps getting a little tighter and demand is starting to wane. if you are mario draghi and you're looking at this, you're thinking that you do not want it rolling over this. is the precise opposite thing of what you want. you want to go the other way. if you're going to guess in the future whether the ecb will have to ease more, there's a decent chance some point in the future that more ecb easing would be on the way. you can see that chart on g #btv 989. betty: you got some work ahead for you, mark. mark: is it time to get out of mining stocks? i don't even need to do this chart because we just spoke and he said that you should not be chasing so i will see you later. [laughter] as you know, the ftse 350, which
encapsulates the glencore's and the anglos, since january, the index is up by 74%. this pushed the valuation to 38 times estimated earnings. that is a big rise from the 20 level in january when it was ftse 350r the mining index. 600while, the stoxx valuation has moved from 14 times estimated earnings to 16 times earnings. the valuation gap, which is the come is basically at the highest level since records began when we started compiling the data back in 2005. is it time to get out of mining stocks? citigroup says basically it is. it has changed its six-month start on the metal and mining sector to bearish. the stocks have run too hard and too fast. if you want to love my chart, g
990.b betty: before i choose a winner, saudie breaking news on arabia. jpmorgan and michael klein who now runs his own boutique firm. they have been selected to advise this ipo. klein is going to provide strategic advice to the government. jpmorgan is going to be among the banks to underwrite this mega, mega listing. still in deliberations. there is no final decision about the ipo. no final decisions about this ipo has been made. that is certainly big news for the bankers involved. and jpmorgan among those who are going to advise and underwrite this potential ipo. back on battle of the charts, i would say today that less is
betty: live from new york and london, i betty liu. mark: i am mark barton. this is the european close. betty: we're going to talk new york politics or national politics. new york's primary is today. onald trump is predicted to cruise to an easy win well hillary clinton is in a closer race with bernie sanders. both cast their votes in chappaqua.
joining us now is bloomberg news white house reporter margaret collins. trump is expected to cruise to an easy win and so is hillary as well. of from: there is a lot a because if donald trump gets over 50%, it helps to lock in a path for that magic number that he needs to be able to clinch the nomination the for he goes to an otherwise insane convention. as for hillary clinton, if it is sanders were to overtake her, it would create major problems for her even though she has the delegate math behind her. for both of them, it's important to have a decisive victory. betty: it looks like it is. she has a 90% certainty here. margaret: there is no poll that has showed him over taking her in new york. she has always been at least 10 points ahead. turnout is everything and you do not know until you are done. there have been a couple of bernie sanders surprises. betty: that is true. mark: margaret, how does this set up donald trump? it's it a couple weeks.
to be fair, he is not have the best of months. thisoes it set him up for years of primates taking place in the next couple weeks -- pennsylvania, connecticut, delaware? margaret: the stronger he performed in new york, the less extent the heat there is in those medicament primates. if he does not do as well as he want in the new york primary, it becomes ever more crucial. as the contest proceeds towards june, if he does not hit that magic number, all bets are off at the convention and he knows that. politicalother big event is present obama heading the size of the limit -- the size of the atlantic. the white house has signaled already that it is his preference and if asked by friends, he will tell them what he thinks. the president and his team are
very conscious of not wanting to overstep their place in this and have a boomerang effect if he is seen as trying to force the u.k. to follow his will. it may backfire and they are conscious of that. have a comment from the president ahead of this trip is expecting in terms of u.s.-saudi relations and also the legislation going through congress right now about suing foreign countries. here's what he said about this. >> this is not just a bilateral u.s.-saudi issue. this is a matter of how generally united states approaches our interactions with other countries. if we open up the possibility that individuals in the united states can routinely start suing other governments, we are also opening up the united states to being continually sued by
individuals in other countries . house we have heard speaker paul ryan himself today distancing himself from this legislation. margaret: what is interesting is that for hillary clinton, her democratic reason isn't to be support of chuck schumer's bill to allow this. clinton has signaled that for now she is supportive of this legislation if she were to become president. in theory, that could be a sticking point between u.s.-saudi relations. betty: margaret, thank you. mark, one last look at the european markets. mark: seven days of gains in eight and that says everything that needs to be said. "bloomberg markets" continues after the break. ♪
scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i am scarlet fu. alix: i'm alix steel. here's what we're watching at this hour. stocks are still makes today as fears about lockstep starting to fade. scarlet: a different story for goldman sachs -- the worst performance in the dow this year. the lowest revenue this year since lloyd blankfein took the post. alix: netflix seeing a hiccup in stream strategy. the company cannot seem to duplicate its success overseas. we will speak to one analyst who sees this as a buying opportunity. we are halfway through the u.s. trading day. let's head over now to the markets desk with julie hyman, including a leg down in the u.s. major index. julie: the s&p in particular coming